WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  RealClearPolitics has the aggregate of polls of President Obama's job approval at 43.6% approve, 50.3% disapprove. 

However, that aggregate average includes polls with a variety of track records.  Gallup is showing 40% approval, 53% disapproval.  Gallup had Obama down to 39% earlier in the week.  Rasmussen, which polls likely voters, has Obama at 45% approve, 53% disapprove.

So we can reasonably assume that a slight majority of those polled – and it can vary from "all adults" to "likely voters, depending on the poll" – now disapprove of the president's job performance, and that 40-45% approve. 

Those are poor numbers, but they are not dismal.  However, please note that this president, for unique reasons, has a base of support that will always be with him.  This could be for ethnic or ideological reasons.  So that base will not vary as much as other voter groups, even Democratic groups, might.

Even with Rick Perry running, we still get signs of rumbling in Republican circles that the GOP field doesn't contain an obvious candidate capable of defeating Obama, who is a superb campaigner.  We can say, as we look to the end of the August doldrums, that the entire political picture is very unsettled, and subject to surprises and jolts.

August 20, 2011